Predicting the current and future distribution of pine woodland specialist plants in the Cairngorms National Park

The Caledonian pine forests of Scotland have declined significantly over the past century largely due to clearance for timber, fuel and grazing land. Approximately 1% these native pinewoods remain from their historic extent, with a stronghold in Cairngorms National Park. Creeping Lady’s-Tresses Goodyera repens (L.) R. Br., One-Flowered Wintergreen Moneses uniflora A. Gray Twinflower Linnaea borealis L. favour this habitat, meaning that woodland has resulted widespread declines. There are multiple plantation schemes underway reforest Highlands, such as Connect, partly intent assisting recovery specialists. This study uses Maximum Entropy modelling (MaxEnt) create species distribution models (SDMs), firstly predict current species; thus, enabling land managers target surveys hope finding new populations. Secondly, future created using different emissions scenarios regions maximum habitat suitability species, aim visualising where should be planted ensure long-term viability. results showed there north east which highest suitability, currently future. creation corridors between two priority prevent isolation populations high pathway could increase likelihood by decreasing most suitable areas.